Analysis
From Warlords to Statelords: Armed Groups and Power Trajectories in Libya and Yemen
di Talbot Valeria
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After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its weaponisation of natural gas supplies, energy security has become a top political priority for Europe. Given the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s abundant oil and gas resources, the European countries inevitably turned to the region to make up for the shortfall. This Report analyses the impact
From Warlords to Statelords: Armed Groups and Power Trajectories in Libya and Yemen
di Ardemagni Eleonora
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Armed groups play a central role in Libya and Yemen. Pervading weak and contested institutions, they have gradually brought their survival, profit and governance strategies under the state umbrella: warlords have become the new lords of the state. Armed groups control most of the energy revenues, critical infrastructure, smuggling and illicit trafficking. Their leaders are
COP 27: Relaunching Climate Action in a Burning MENA region
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments upon the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we place the spotlight upon COP27, the 27th annual UN meeting, hosted this year in the Egyptian city of Sharm El-Sheikh.The Mediterranean region is currently warming 20% faster than the global average: devastating heatwaves, water shortages,
Israel: New Elections, Old Deadlock
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on Israel, where the upcoming elections have been shaped once again by the polarisation around the figure of former PM Benjamin Netanyahu. On November the 1st, Israelis will head to the polls for the
Little Hopes for the Arab League as Global Crises Loom
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on the upcoming 31st Arab League Summit, where representatives of national governments will convene in Algeria, after a hiatus of more than three years, to address the most relevant current issues concerning the
The Eastern Mediterranean Energy-Geopolitics Nexus
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we sharpen the focus upon recent developments unfolding within the Eastern Mediterranean region marked by, among others, an historic maritime border deal struck by Israel and Lebanon. Several developments worthy of close attention are currently
Bin Zayed in Russia: A Headache for Washington?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus upon the visit that the Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed paid to Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg. On Tuesday, October the 11th, the Emirati President Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) travelled to Russia
The Truce Is Over: Yemen’s Leap Into the Void?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights upon the most significant developments within the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on possible future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Yemen, where the expiry of a six-month ceasefire threatens to rekindle the war and aggravate the condition
Women, Life, Freedom: Iran at a Crossroads
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments upon the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, the focus is on Iran, where widespread protests over the killing of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini have shaken the country for the last two weeks, posing a new existential challenge to the Raisi administration. For almost
The Unbearable Cost of Inflation in the MENA Region
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the rising inflation rates that many countries in the region are currently experiencing. For several months
Egypt-Qatar Relations: Melting of the Ice?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight upon Egypt-Qatar relations, as we look at President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s inaugural visit to Doha after a four-year rift between the two countries. On September 13 and 14, the Egyptian President,
Iran Deal: From “Close to Revive” to “Close to Stalling”?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we place the spotlight upon Iran and the negotiations to revive the nuclear deal. During the last weeks, cautious optimism has emerged over the possibility that an agreement upon the restoration of the Joint
Iraq: How a Political Deadlock Turns Violent
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed commentary upon the most significant issues and trends in the MENA region. Today we focus on Iraq, where a new wave of violence between conflicting Shia factions has erupted within the capital and across the country. In the midst of a deepening political crisis, clashes have
Europe’s bumpy road to energy security: Heading to the Middle East?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we explore the potential emerging levels of energy interaction between European markets in search for non-Russian resources and countries of the Southern neighbourhood. Once again, looming energy shocks are threatening Europe. On August the 22nd, following
The Sadrist Gamble: A Make-or-Break Moment for Iraq?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments upon the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we place the spotlight upon Iraq, where an extended political crisis has abruptly resulted in the occupation of the Iraqi parliament by the supporters of the influential leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and a potential confrontation
Libya’s Thickening Plot: Power, Oil and Clashes
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight upon Libya, looking at the end of a three-month oil blockade in the country as well as the recent clashes among militias in Tripoli and Misrata. In Libya, oil has begun
Putin’s meeting with Raisi and Erdogan: What’s next for Syria?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on the visit that Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan paid to Tehran, where together with Iranian President Raisi, they discussed the Ukraine war and the Syrian conflict. On July the 19th,
Biden in the Middle East: Reigniting the US Agenda for the Region?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments within the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on possible future scenarios. Today, we place the spotlight upon Joe Biden’s first trip to the Middle East as the American head of State, specificly aimed
Turkey: When International Ambitions Must Come to Terms with Economy
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights upon the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on possible future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight upon Turkey, where economic fragility at a national level is the backdrop for intense diplomatic activity abroad,
Israel: No break to a political crisis
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on on the dismissal of Israel’s coalition government, zooming in on the country’s political crisis and external relations as it heads to new legislative elections. There seems to be no break to Israel’s political
Lebanon: New Government in the Making
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on Lebanon, where Najib Miqati was just nominated Prime Minister-designate. On June 23, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Miqati was appointed for a new term. This veteran politician will soon start the negotiations to
Tunisia’s National Strike: Turning the Tide?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight on the strike called by the Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) for June 16 and the country’s new constitutional process. On June 16, the million-member Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) has
Russia and the Gulf: Cooperation, No Matter What
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on Russia’s ties with the Gulf countries, discussing the consequences of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Saudi Arabia. On May 31, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov arrived in Saudi Arabia
Iran: No End to Mounting Protests
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we focus on Iran, where a month of public protests over a cut in government subsidies on essential goods poses a new challenge to the Raisi administration. Iran is experiencing a new wave of popular dissent.
The Scramble for Libya
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight on the recent clashes in Tripoli and the attempt by parliament-backed Prime Minister Bashagha to install himself and his cabinet in Libya’s capital. On May 17, Libya was on the verge
Khalifa bin Zayed’s Succession in the UAE: An Old New Course?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the UAE, where following the death of Sheikh Khalifa, Mohammed bin Zayed was appointed as the new
Syria’s Future Still Hangs by a Thread
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we focus on Syria, recently back in the spotlight following the sixth edition of the EU-promoted Brussels Conference and Assad’s recent visit
Turkey’s New Diplomatic Shift
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Turkey, as Erdogan recently visited Saudi Arabia for the first time in nearly five years. This is
Tensions in Jerusalem: What’s next?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight to Israel and the latest clashes in the Old City of Jerusalem, analysing their consequences at the local and regional levels. Tensions are mounting once again in Jerusalem. At the end
Yemen: Is the war nearing an end?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight on Yemen, where a nationwide truce serves as the backdrop for the inauguration of a new presidential council tasked with managing the country and leading the peace efforts with the Houthis.
Israel: Bennett Between the Hammer and the Anvil
Israel is experiencing one of its deadliest wave of violence in years. On April 7th, an attack in central Tel Aviv claimed the lives of three people and wounded some ten others. The shooting was the latest in a series of lethal aggressions across Israel, carried out since March 22nd by both Arab citizens of Israel and Palestinians from the West
Tunisia’s democracy: Not a storm in a teacup
most significant issues and trends. Today, we turn the spotlight on Tunisia, where the ongoing political crisis has intensified after President Kais Saied dissolved the Parliament, which had been frozen since July. This move has further plunged the country into political turmoil and stoked fears of a nascent autocracy. In his latest effort to consolidate power, Tunisia’s President
MENA Oil & Gas in the Energy Crisis: A Thorn Bed for Washington?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight on the challenges the United States is facing to shore up ties with unsatisfied allies in the Middle East and North Africa and tackle today’s energy crisis. The United States is
Assad in the UAE: A Watershed Moment for the Syrian thaw?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad’s visit to the UAE, his first trip to an Arab country in over
Iran, Russia and the JCPOA: Is a year of negotiations at risk?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the Iran nuclear talks, focusing on the consequences of the last-minute requests raised by Russia in this
War in Ukraine: A food crisis in the MENA region?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. This week, we focus on the rise in food prices that the MENA region is experiencing in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine: A wake-up call also for the MENA region?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, focusing on how countries in the MENA region are reacting to the outbreak
The end of Barkhane in Mali: What’s next for the Sahel?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the French withdrawal from Mali, a pivotal moment for the future of the Sahel and North Africa
Libya: Sowing New Seeds of Instability
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight on Libya, where the Tobruk Parliament’s move to nominate a new prime minister has reopened divisions between rival factions, raising fears of renewed instability in the fragile country. Libya seems to
Israel and the Gulf: A Security Partnership Around the Corner?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today we focus on the broadening technological and military partnership between Israel and the Arab Gulf States. A year and a half after
From Washington to Tehran: Doha’s Diplomacy at Work
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we focus on Qatar, whose recent vibrant diplomatic role has been emphasized by its involvement in a broad range of issues discussed
Iraq and Syria: Is Daesh Coming Back?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today we focus on the Islamic State’s recent activity in Syria and Iraq. The latest attack on a prison in northeast Syria is
Assessing Biden’s Middle East policy, One Year In
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on the first year of the Biden administration, focusing on the evolution of the US’ approach to several
The Gulf and China: A Broadening Partnership?
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today, we focus on the recent visits of Gulf representatives to China, in the attempt to enhance their respective bilateral relations with
Institutionalised (In)Security: Exploring the MENA Region’s Governance Crises
After a decade of popular uprisings and civil wars, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is experiencing a deep governance crisis. The transformation, weakening or even the collapse of state institutions has changed the security framework, with direct implications for processes of Security Sector Governance and Reform (SSG/R).This report, produced in collaboration between ISPI and
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