MED Panels

17 Oct 2025
14:00 - 14:45  CEST
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Fraying Deterrence: Iran’s Geopolitical Recalibration

Chair:
Merissa Khurma

Founder & Chief Executive Officer, AMENA Strategies;, Middle East Program, Wilson Center

Speakers:
Vali Nasr

Majid Khadduri Professor, Middle East Studies and International Affairs, John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

Trita Parsi

Executive Vice President , Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft Economic Progress

William F. Wechsler

Senior Director, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs, Atlantic Council

Direct attacks by Israel and the United States on Iranian territory are prompting Tehran to reconfigure its deterrence strategy. This is taking place in the context of a weakening of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, following Israeli strikes against Hamas and Hezbollah and the collapse of the Assad regime – developments that have opened a new and complex chapter for Iran’s regional posture. While Iran’s missile capabilities are likely to continue serving as a key pillar of its military doctrine, the future of its nuclear programme remains uncertain amid repeated strikes on its enrichment facilities. This session explores Iran’s shifting regional strategy, the resilience of its partnerships, and their implications for the wider Mediterranean and Gulf security architecture. How might the Islamic Republic redefine its influence and deterrence posture within the Middle East?  What remains of its once-expansive network of regional allies?  And what are the prospects for the country becoming a nuclear power?